Housing


ULI’s Nashville District Council held it’s annual Real Estate Trends Conference this morning in conjunction with the good folks at the Nashville Chamber of Commerce.  Dean Schwanke, the Senior VP at the ULI Center for Capital Markets & Real Estate was the presenter this year.  The “Emerging Trends” study is a compilation of close to 900 interviews conducted with real estate “experts” around the country – somehow I slipped onto the list for the last couple of years, so you know it’s good (tongue planted firmly in cheek.) If last year’s overall menu presentation was cold and rancid meat loaf, this year’s menu looked like the three week old ham sandwich you found in the leftover drawer of the refrigerator – it might be edible, but I wouldn’t risk it.  The full report is available through the ULI website by clicking here.  From my scribbled notes, the following bullet points to consider:

  • Expect another 30-50% decline in asset values for most commercial real estate.
  • Good news – investor expectations for returns are being re-calibrated.
  • New term – “financial engineering,”  as in “we are going back to basics, no more financial engineering.”
  • More than 50% of the respondents felt that equity was over-supplied.
  • BUT, 78% felt that debt is undersupplied although the life companies are stepping up.
  • It is anticipated that in 2011 the public equity REITs will be the most active buyers – they are generally flush.
  • If you want to know what the new normal looks like, set your sites on the 2003-2004 numbers.

The general tenor of the discussion was that while we have not been knocked out in this fight, we are definitely taking the standing eight count.  On a national (and I think local level too) the best asset classes to be looking at in the coming year are moderate and high income apartments.

The most worrisome slide was towards the very end of Schwanke’s presentation…well, the one showing the gentlemen wearing sombreros and taking a siesta as this year’s advice to developers was worrisome for me…but, the slide I am talking about concerned the governmental picture.  Unsustainable levels of debt at the municipal, state and federal level, anticipated spikes in interest rates, gnawing continued high unemployment.  Here in Nashville, we should fare better than most – our city and state have been well run, overall, and in general, we behave like adults towards business.  But, I suspect this is the same set of facts that most Americans know in their guts and that’s what is keeping the fear quotient up and preventing businesses from cranking up employment.

After a short break, a panel discussion was held with Larry Kloess of HCA, Bill Nigh with Bank of Nashville, Randy Rayburn of Sunset Grill and other delectable restaurants fame, and Laquita Stribling with Randstad, a local employment agency.  This was a well rounded and intriguing presentation.  A few highlights again from my legal pad:

  • In banking, it’s back to the basics.  Do you have a net worth? Do you have bankable cash flow?  The regulatory environment is driving the uncertainty that keeps banks from lending.
  • From Randy, we learned what an important part of the local economy the hospitality industry is – it’s big.
  • In discussing challenges, Laquita pointed out that 15% of Nashville’s employment base is within 10 years of retirement – there is a significant gap between retirements and new graduations, making it critical that we keep our graduates from all of our fine schools in town.
  • Larry mused about the effects of the healthcare reform bill essentially telling us that it is so complicated and convoluted and it is being layered onto an industry that is so complicated and convoluted that….well no one knows.  He did tell us that there is a rapidly growing problem in the shortage of primary care providers and to expect future visits to the doctor to be more like trips to the dentist: the hygienist works on you for 45 minutes then the dentist comes in and asks about your handicap.

The good news is that we are in a city that is considered highly creative with a great brand.  We are also blessed with pretty good governance and a business and real estate community that is truly gifted in what they do.  As I am scribing this, over the wire comes news that there’s a good chance that Community Health is making a run at Tenet and that combined they would become the second largest hospital management company.  With HCA first and the aforementioned merger second, the Nashville area would truly become ground zero for healthcare.

We still have a few years of rough sledding, but there are few other places I would rather be than right here in Middle Tennessee…hmmm, with that rhyme maybe I’ll try my hand at songwriting!

 

 

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This past semester in my Real Estate Finance class at the Owen School of Vanderbilt, I was dissecting the housing crash in the United States.  One of the charts showed the run up in values in different markets around the country.  One of my Chinese students offered that they were experiencing the same thing in Beijing – his house, he said, had appreciated 50% in the last six months.  Here’s more evidence that a bubble is being inflated:

(From SF Gate) “An auction of land in Beijing was cancelled after bidding exceeded a price ceiling set for the lot as the Chinese government expands efforts to rein in the nation’s property market.”

There’s more: “Imagine a seller refuses your business because he thinks you are paying too much for his products?” Bank of America- Merrill Lynch analysts led by David Cui wrote in a report distributed today. “It demonstrates the type of pressure the central government is putting on local officials to get the property market right this time; this increases the risk of potential overshooting in the property market crackdown.”

According to Google Translate, the word for bubble in Chinese is 泡沫  or “paomo.”

This chart that measures average house prices in gold, shows a long and steady decline going back to 2001:

Obviously it reflects the increase in gold prices, but it shows a steady erosion of confidence in residential real estate as an asset class.

Let’s hope this is good news and we see home prices level off in their historic range.  The problem is going to that inside that parabola…err, open ended triangle, is a heck of a lot of second mortgage debt and homes no longer worth the note they were purchased for.  There is an estimated $103 BILLION in lost value that was supporting credit cards, trips to the beach, business start-ups and the like.  It will take us some time to claw back out.

This is a sobering picture.  The little bitty red column for which there are only two entries is new home sales.  This represents about 9.5 months of inventory according to the Census Bureau.  Couple this news with the pending resets scheduled for ARM’s and new construction looks a long way off:

I hate to continue to point out bad news, but I firmly believe it you are better prepared when you are armed with knowledge.  Unfortunately, a lot of the regular press is just kicking the can down the road and trying to convince you that the magical powers of Washington have changed the realities of the business cycle forever.

NIMBY’s and BANANA’s and CAVE’S oh my!  (Not In My Backyard, Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anything, Citizens Against Virtually Everything)  They are on the loose in the great state of Florida with the proposed Amendment 4 to the Florida constitution – slyly labeled the “Florida Hometown Democracy Land Use Initiative,” this bill is about “democracy” like North Korea is the “People’s Democratic Republic of North Korea.”  I first learned about this initiative in a short piece over at Builder Online, but a little digging brought out the real nasty bits of this legislation.

Basically, acting on the theory that sprawl is bad and we don’t want sprawl, this bill would require public referendums for any changes to local comprehensive land use plans.  One could argue that that type of participation is pure democracy – everyone gets a say!  Balderdash!  That type of participation lends itself to chaos – this is why our Founding Fathers (reverent pause with Bach note strains in the background) developed the type of government we have.   In the words of Benjamin Franklin responding to a woman who asked just that question: “A republic madam if you can keep it.”  Long time readers of my screed know that I would put more faith in a random selection of 435 names from the Nashville phone book than the entire House of Representatives, but land use policy is – ahem – dare I say it, more complex and requires some genuine expertise.  To continue my analogy, the House actually acts like a referendum force…with short terms they have to constantly go back to their constituency and do the will of the people, however passionately misguided that might be.  The Senate is there to temper the passion and provide reason.  In the combination of these two bodies, in theory, good legislation emerges.

Going to a referendum system gets you all the passion that can be whipped up by environmental groups, anti-growthers, population control kooks and the like coupled with the natural disinclination towards change that homeowners (myself included!) feel.  Here’s a partial list of groups that are supporting this thing:

Alliance To Protect Water Resources, Inc. Big Bend Biofuels Clean Water Action Clean Water Network of Florida Coalition of Concerned Citizens Concerned Citizens of Flagler Beach Concerned Citizens of Wakulla Concerned Friends of Fernandina Conservation Alliance of St. Lucie County Control Growth Now Corridor 44 Civic Association Eagle Crest Civic Association East Polk Government Watch Committee, Inc. Eastern Surfing Association – Palm Beach County District Eco-Action, Inc. Environment Florida Environmental Confederation of Southwest Florida, Inc (ECOSWF) Environmental Council of Volusia – Flagler Counties Eric Fricker – (past) Vice Mayor, City of Cocoa Beach EverGreen, the Tree Treasurers of Charlotte County F.E.A.R., Inc. (Floridians for Environmental Accountability and Reform) Flagler Beach Environmental Preservation Council, Inc Florida Bi-Partisan Civic Affairs Group Florida Consumer Action Network Florida Native Plant Society, Pinellas Chapter Florida Open Beaches Foundation,Inc. Florida Panther Society Florida PIRG – Florida Public Interest Research Group
…and a partridge in a pear tree!  The Builder article I referenced earlier identifies some of the creepier supporters of this bill including:
Among Hometown Democracy’s more controversial supporters is the anti-immigrationist Floridians for a Sustainable Population, whose founder, Joyce Tarnow, once operated an abortion clinic. In 2004, Tarnowwas quoted in the Broward Palm Beach News as saying “fertility is an environmental issue. That’s why I try to get as many people sterilized as are in my way.”
Look, Florida real estate is in the tank right now.  Worse than most other locations, especially South Florida.  But this has not been because of poor land planning.  It has been due to the collapse of second home purchases, declining immigration along with all the other suspects that the rest of the nation has been enduring.  This bill will do nothing to prevent this from happening again.  What it will do is drive up the costs of doing business in Florida.
There is this wonderful myth perpetuated by environmentalists and the media that all developers are enormously wealthy, greedy cads who want nothing more than to turn the trees into asphalt.  There are some like that out there to be sure, but the vast majority of the developer population are hard working, decent entrepreneurial types who really want to do the right thing.  I have said many times that I would never want to develop something that I wouldn’t be proud to take my children by in twenty years…that’s a standard that many of my fellow developers share.  Developers take on huge personal risk to achieve their dreams.  This type of legislation will add substantially to that risk and encourage the good guys who don’t have uber-deep pockets to go elsewhere.  The only companies that can survive this process will be the ones that can afford huge legal bills and costly delays.
It’s up to you Floridians!  This turkey is on your ballot for November 2, 2010 – if it passes, God help us.  It will serve as a model for interest groups that want to see us living like the Industrial Revolution never occurred.

I get the sense sometimes that our national policies are being crafted on the “ready, shoot, aim” principle.  Regardless of where you stand on the health care issue, for example, you cannot be happy with the way this process is being conducted: instead of reasoned analysis of the problem, a careful consideration of the alternatives and an exploration of what has been tried, we’re getting a kielbasi that no one is going to like.

Affordable housing is one of those catch-phrases like “green development” and “smart growth” that we all want to feel good about, and feel we are part of the solution for, but is there really a problem?  Certainly from my perspective as someone that spent a large part of his growing years in the Third World, I can vouch for the depravity of housing conditions in many countries…the worst ghetto in St. Louis would look like luxury housing to a resident in one of Sao Paulo’s favellas (slums).   I’ve done some thinking on what affordable housing is, or should be, and figured out that if I had just started Googling the term, I would have gotten an answer quicker.  Fortunately, where I arrived at upon reflection was pretty close to accepted standards nationally and internationally.  I approached the definition from the perspective of needs and decided that a person’s base needs are food (first), shelter (second), clothing and ancillaries to allow one to be a productive member of society (third).  Thus, I decided that “affordable housing” should comprise no more than one-third of an individual/family’s ability to produce income.

The folks over at demographia.com agree, and it is close to the standard we have used in leasing and selling housing these past twenty years. Here’s their formula – they call it the “Median Multiple,” and base it off of median income:

Now, with that as a standard, the folks at Demographia take a look at housing markets in the United States, Canada, Ireland, the United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand and come up with some pretty interesting stats:

By this measure, ONLY Canada and the United States have affordable housing markets!  Fully 44% of our markets that were surveyed are “Affordable,” 78% are “Affordable” or “Moderately Unaffordable.”  Our median affordability at 3.2 is a full two points below the next most affordable, the UK.  This data reflects survey results from the 3rd Quarter of 2008 to boot, which means that the average 25-30% declines are not priced into these numbers.

Demographia’s agenda is to promote free market economy and to get rid of land restrictions and such…they are opposed to “smart growth” tagging that pattern of development with less affordable housing.  Here’s a chart they present on housing affordability versus land rationing which is interesting:

But that’s not my fight.  (To download the whole report, go to Demographia.com.)I lean towards the pattern of smart growth development as a means of being good stewards of the land although the data provided does indicate that we need to be smarter about our smart growth.  No my fight is with policy folks at the national scale that got us into the financial mess we are struggling through.  A big part of the push for exotic lending instruments came from the Federal Government under the premise that housing was unaffordable.  The inconvenience of facts is that this premise was false.  And if we apply our old syllogistic logic skills, where A=B, B=C, Therefore A=C…if A does NOT equal B, it cannot equal C and all the measures that were put in place.  Initiatives like the Community Reinvestment Act of 1977 and it’s expansion in 1999 along with the pressure put on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase subprime loans all under the rubric of “doing good,” has led to this disaster.

We have nurtured the belief that the American dream is for everyone to own their own home.  We have structured our tax policy around this belief and now we are paying the price for the mistaken belief that housing should be made affordable to EVERYONE, and that the U.S. taxpayer would subsidize any shortfall or failure.  It is time to push for a more sane housing policy.  One that acknowledges that renting is an extraordinarily good option.  We have culturally gotten away from the notion that you have to save up to buy the house with the white picket fence on the edge of town; we have made it a right, an entitlement. If we are going to recover with a robust economy, we had better get back to the basics and acknowledge that housing is not a “crisis” that needs intervention.  Housing is a matter of local preference, let’s get back to the place where each municipality determines their own housing policies and needs.

Here’s Ellen Greene in the 1986 movie, “Little Shop of Horrors,” to take us out with “Somewhere that’s Green:”

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