This is an interesting take on the state of the world’s economy.  I take issue with it, however, on a couple of levels:

1. It ignores the potentially harmful effects of pending legislation such as “health care reform,” and “cap and trade.”  Both of those initiatives could have enormous negative effects on the U.S. economy, throttling any chance of recovery in the cradle.

2. It also ignores the looming problems with commercial real estate.  As the Wall Street Journal notes,

U.S. banks have been charging off soured commercial mortgages at the fastest pace in nearly 20 years, according to an analysis by The Wall Street Journal. At that rate, losses on loans used to finance offices, shopping malls, hotels, apartments and other commercial property could reach about $30 billion by the end of 2009.

We have not seen the bottom in real estate and until we arrive at bankable value, the uncertainty will restrict credit and recovery.

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